Tag Archive: anti-EU

The Brexiteers vs The Establishment: a very tall tale

And so, with less than a week to go before the EU Referendum scheduled of the 23 June 2016, the Leave (or Brexit for British Exit) campaign took a lead in the opinion polls for the first time, quickly followed by other polls showing that everything is to play for. Such polls are not an exact science: they have not known for their accuracy in the UK. In the last referendum they were predicting that Scotland would choose to divorce from the UK. More recently they did not predict a majority for the Conservatives in the last General Election. Still something is happening which might result in the unimaginable: Britain could soon find itself heading out of the European Union (EU).

A theme which becomes more and more apparent in recent polling is that a shift has occurred and it is connected with particular social groups representing the working population pushing for Brexit. The reason has probably little to do with the EU itself, which is generally not that well known (in itself is an on-going problem and not just in the UK). Rather this seems to reflect be a groundswell of concerns, anxieties and fear which go beyond EU immigration:

“… the EU referendum debate has opened up a Pandora’s box of working-class anger and frustration… I would argue that the referendum debate within working-class communities is not about immigration, despite the rhetoric. It is about precarity and fear … For them, talking about immigration and being afraid of immigration is about the precarity of being working class, when people’s basic needs are no longer secure and they want change. The referendum has opened up a chasm of inequality in the UK and the monsters of a deeply divided and unfair society are crawling out. They will not easily go away no matter what the referendum result.”

This analysis rings true to me and hence my fear that the EU Referendum could swinging towards Brexit, whatever the merits of the Remain case. The Leave campaign has detected and tapped into this sentiment, and is now milk it for all it is worth. By contrast, the utter failure of the Remain campaign to articulate a strong case for remaining, as opposed sketching gloom and doom Brexit scenarios, has an alarmist and thus false ring to it.

Instead, the Brexiteers have positioned themselves to pander to these fears and anxieties, while at the same time offering them a golden opportunity to giving a bloody nose to the toffs representing the British Establishment / Elites that would preserve the status quo (i.e. remain in the EU) at all costs and against the best interests of ordinary Britons.

Austerity has  undoubtedly intensified the sense of precarity in British society and this is being exploited by the Brexiteers. However, the issue is what exactly is the motivation of the leading Brexiteers and their backers? Should Brexit occur, would they prioritise dealing with these legitimate concerns upon Brexit or are the Brexiteers spinning a very long tale?

The Noes

The “Noes” camp is led by Boris Johnson and his band of merry men such as Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith, Priti Patel, etc. (all Conservatives). Nigel Farage (UKIP) is ploughing his own furrow. The others consider him to be “toxic” to the Brexit because of his focus on the issue of EU immigration,  most recently demonstrated in UKIP´s intemperate use of the refugee crisis, though in reality the immigration theme is one which the rest of the leading Brexiteers have increasingly latched on to.

They are joined by those well-known supporters of democracy and transparency who only wish Britain well for the future, such as Marine Le Pen, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. All are encouraging Britons to Brexit, thus freeing the UK from the clutches, if not shackles, of the EU.

They all stress the need to regain control of the borders (i.e. stop EU immigration), stop EU benefit tourism, stop EU heath tourism, stop housing being taken up by EU foreigners, stop school places being taken-up by EU migrants´ children,  stop the loss of British sovereignty, stop EU enlargement, stop payments flowing to the EU, etc. (follow the links for an alternative analysis of the causes and the solutions). The grand plan is to stop anything and everything emanating from the EU because it is self-evident (to them) that all of Britain’s problems stem from being in the EU. This has the simplistic ring of pure populism and we all know what that has led to in the past.

The Brexiteers have few ideas about what they would do upon Brexit. The plan is basically to stop the EU, regain full sovereignty, regain control of the borders, reduce immigration through an Austria style points system, sign-up new trade deals and plough Britain´s EU financial contribution into public services. Britain will soon thrive upon Brexit. Apparently.

The possibility that most of the key problems in Britain (housing, health, education, low productivity, infrastructure, massive public and private sector debt, etc.) are the direct result of Britain´s own systemic policy failures and would cost a few zillion pounds more that the EU annual contribution seemingly does not cross their mind.

The EU is to blame for everything and the British Establishment / Elites (i.e. pretty much anyone daring to challenge the Leave arguments, especially experts) with it.

The Ayes

On the other side of the fence is a very long list of those calling for Britain to Remain in the EU because it is in Britain´s present and future interest to do so, including:

  • The majority of the Conservative Party, including the Prime Minister and Chancellor:
  • The majority of the Labour Party, including the leader of the opposition (officially);
  • The Social Democrats;
  • The Scottish National Party;
  • The Greens;
  • Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton;
  • The Treasury;
  • The Institute of Fiscal Affairs;
  • The Federal Reserve;
  • The World Bank;
  • The World Trade Organisation (WTO);
  • The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD);
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF);
  • The other 27 EU nations;
  • The trades unions;
  • The great majority of established businesses;
  • The great majority of health professionals, NGOs and similar;
  • Almost all economists (since there are almost as many differences of opinion as there are economists, the fact that about 600 have united behind Remain is remarkable).

This is an overwhelming group of institutions that favour Remaining in the EU.

Such an incredible array of opinion would normally sway public opinion.

But the reality is that they are cutting little or no ice with the social groups previously discussed.

Instead, the Brexiteers have gained momentum and could well win the day.

The Anti Establishment Band?

The Brexiteers are putting-up a fight – an increasingly bitter one at that (as was the previous Brexit referendum in 1975).

They stress that they are fighting the British Establishment / Elite, pointedly alluding to the wealthy toffs such as David Cameron and George Osborne.

They emphasise that the Establishment prefers the status quo, rather than what is right for Britain.

They maintain that the Establishment from abroad (USA, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, Australia, etc.) should butt-off and allow Britons to get on it, as if we are not all interconnected in this globalised world where whatever Britons decided affects all other EU national, as well other countries.

They dismiss international organisations for being stuffed full of overpaid and under-taxed bureaucrats that simply trot out what the EU and the Establishment wants to hear. They do the same with any other experts, Britons or not, for all being in the EU´s pocket.

Since the economic and trade case for Brexit is non-existent, except in their own imagination, they increasingly contrast themselves with the Elites / Establishment, while they uphold the interests of ordinary working class Britons by braving political correctness and speaking out against current EU immigration as well as immigration from future accession countries such as Turkey and Albania.

They point out that, unlike them, the Establishment has lost contact with ordinary, working class voters, who are suffering from the consequences of the EU.

And they insist that they are not racists, they are not nativists, they are not isolationists and they are not Little Englanders. They just want what is in the best long-term best interests of the UK.

There is an element of truth in some of the above; there has to be a veneer of it in order to connect with people.

But there is a very tall tale at the core of it too, which is what I would like to emphasis in this post.

Question: when is the Establishment not the Establishment?

Answer: when you belong to the leading Band of Brexiteers

Maybe it is possible that all the British and other institutions previously listed are not in cahoots in a someMachiavellian national, European and global  conspiracy to get Britons to vote for something that would be detrimental to their own future.

Maybe ending EU membership will not miraculously cure Britain´s structural problems, which are the main reason that the key British public services are in their current state.

Maybe Britain´s austerity, which has nothing to do with the EU, is the driver of all the angst.

Maybe Brexit might actually accentuate the problems, not least the massive and growing public sector deficit, in the short, medium and long-term.

And maybe, just maybe, the Brexiteers are themselves deeply embedded in the very bedrock of the Establishment / Elite which they are so dismissive of.

Consider the following:

  • Boris Johnson: Eton, Oxford University, ex-Mayor of London, Cabinet Member;
  • Michael Gove: Robert Gordon´s School, Oxford University, Cabinet Member
  • Iain Duncan Smith: St. Peter´s RC Secondary School, Sandhurst Royal Military Academy, ex-Cabinet Member;
  • Nigel Farage: Dulwich College, ex-city trader, Member of European Parliament.

Put in these terms, and not even alluding to their likely personal wealth, the band of leading Brexiteers dismissing everyone else for being the British Establishment / Elite could be construed as a good case of “the pot calling the kettle black,” to use a quaint but fitting British saying.

The most prominent Brexiteers did not exactly grow-up in a council housing estate, attend a public school, let alone go around waving a flag of St George or driving a white van, to use some of the usual terminology which the media and politicians now use to denote the white, working class social groups in England (Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland remain solidly for staying in the EU).

I doubt that Boris Johnson and his band of merry Brexiteers are to be regularly found at the local pub, quaffing a celebratory pint of ale after a football match to wash down their bacon butties (unless TV crews are present, of course). I exaggerate, but the point is that all the leading figures of the vote Leave campaign appear to have done rather well out of being an integral part of the British Establishment /Elite. You can be confident that their children and grandchildren are likely to do well out of being part of the same social group.

Therefore, for this set of people to be tapping into the palpable angst among working class Britons in order to further their own political ambitions grates with me. They are seeking to mobilise working class sentiment to achieve an ideological objective which, in the long-term, may very well work against those same voters while, at the same time, propelling BoJo and his band of merry Brexiteers ever further up the greasy pole of British politics and Establishment positions.

The fact is that the leading Brexiteers are not exactly committed to protecting the average person.

In a recent televised debate, Boris Johnson said that the Leave side is determined to protect the workers after Nicola Sturgeon quoted something he once wrote: “The weight of employment regulation is backbreaking. We should get rid of the collective redundancies directive, the workers’ directive, the working time directive and 1,000 more.”

Yet these are the very things which are protecting British employees from having their rights undermined by such British developments as “zero hour contracts”.

Nigel Farage has been widely reported for calling for a move away from a state-funded NHS.

Gove is the architect of educational academies that is not only flawed but may well be damaging education while also increasing inequality.

Iain Duncan Smith is the author-in-chief of the austerity drive which has cut out billions from the welfare state, thus impoverishing the lives of the non-working population of the UK, while also dismantling various parts of social security safety net for low income workers.

The sad fact is that the leading Brexiteers and Brexit, which is definitely on the cards likely, may actually accentuate the fear, insecurity and precarity that is driving the recent trends in voting intentions in relation to the forthcoming EU referendum. When they no longer need to take the EU into consideration, further deregulation and labour market flexibility will lead to even more winners and losers. Your guess about who is likely to be on the losing side is as good as mine: the very people that might vote for Brexit as the outlet of their frustration and anxieties?

The EU Bashers

The band of Brexiteers is far from being alone in the aggressive fight for Brexit.

There is a strong anti-EU bias at the core of the British Establishment. A recent study by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism found that the British press coverage of the EU Referendum is “heavily skewed in favour of Brexit”. It is not just any newspapers that are anti “Europe” but specifically the ones which just happen to be most influential in terms of the social groups turning towards Brexit, as well as having massive circulation compared with the pro-remain newspapers, as illustrated below.

Pro Leave Circulation Pro Remain Circulation
Sun 1.800,000 Mirror 809,000
Mail 1.700,000 Financial Times 198,000
Telegraph 472,000 Guardian 164,000
Express 408,000 Independent 55,000
Times 404,000
Total 4,784,000 Total 1,226,000

 

In other words, much of the British reporting (printed and online coverage) has a strong anti-EU spin and they are not particularly concerned about such trivialities as balanced argument and truthful reporting. The fact is that the Brexiteers are not exactly in their own: they are strongly and systematically aided and abetted by the most influential newspapers in terms of circulation and readership by social groups which are turning against remaining in the EU. The “drip drip” effect clearly works.

Billionaire Brexit Backers (BBB)

The Brexit backers are not restricted to a few billionaire newspaper tycoons such as Rupert Murdoch, Barclay Brothers, Lord Rothermere, Richard Desmond, etc. A simple internet search of the backers of the UKIP / Leave campaigns reveals that quite a few multi-millionaires / billionaires are bankrolling Brexit. These are mainly financiers of various sorts, as well as property tycoons, ICT and retail magnets.

This is not to suggest that the Remain campaign does not have über-wealthy supporters but to illustrate the sort of people that are funding the Brexit campaigns. If these über-wealthy individuals are not, like the leading Brexiteers, and much of the British media, not part and parcel of the very essence of Elite / Establishment, then I do not know who is. If these sorts of individuals not extremely well-placed to take advantage of the opportunities that might arise post-Brexit, not least from the turmoil that might be caused in the property and financial markets, then I do not know who is.

These are not the sort of individuals who are likely to take much notice of the concerns of working people in relation to jobs, wages, housing, social services, etc. It is a safe bet to suggest that protecting British workers´ rights upon Brexit and thus counteracting the drivers of the recent referendum polling trends is not likely to be at the top of their post-Brexit agenda. Take an illustrative quotation from one of the billionaires bankrolling Brexit. Peter Hargreaves has acknowledged the insecurity that would result from Brexit and stressed that: “It would be the biggest stimulus to get our butts in gear that we have ever had” … “We will get out there and we will be become incredibly successful because we will be insecure again. And insecurity is fantastic.” Maybe a billionaire stockbroker truly believes this but I doubt that the average Briton will see perceive insecurity in quite the same manner. This very insecurity is what is driving part of the trend in the possible Brexit vote.

Picking-up on the earlier quotation, for once BoJo is correct: the fact is that millions of the currently working-class people are actually protected by the common rules applied throughout the EU designed to create a single market. The protections include:

  • Anti-discrimination rights;
  • Written terms and conditions;
  • Maximum 48 hour working week, rest periods/breaks;
  • Paid annual leave;
  • Improved health and safety protection;
  • Maternity rights;
  • Parental leave rights;
  • Equal pay for equal work between men and women;
  • Fair treatment of part time, fixed term and agency workers;
  • Rights for outsourced workers;
  • Collective rights such as human rights, collective bargaining, information and consultation, etc.

Source: UK employment rights and the EU

These are not the sort of things to give-up lightly… unless you are so well-off that you do not need them. The people that are feeling the consequences of austerity most certainly do benefit from these labour market protections.

Wolves in Sheep´s Clothing?

 

Don´t be fooled by the über-rich advocating for Brexit on behalf of the ordinary working (and non-working) class British citizen. The great majority of the journalists / media advocating for Brexit stem from the same privately educated, Oxbridge elites. Whatever they may imply, protecting the average working (and non-working) person in Britain from the angst that plagues many of them is not their beer.

What many of them seek is a future where Britain can continue unimpeded down the path of deregulation and maximum labour market “flexibility” such as zero hour contracts.

A lot of Britons are anxious and angry. They have seen a few do very well indeed while austerity and the poor economic performance since 2007 has taken a chunk off their disposable. They know that we are certainly “not all in it together”. They have seen politicians such as David Cameron saying one thing to them and doing another himself. They have seen public services steadily deteriorating and that the future for people that depend on them is anything but rosy. This the result of decades of lack of investment in public services due to lack of political prioritisation. But during the EU Referendum the media and the Brexiteers point to the EU and EU immigrants and ordinary Britons fear that there will be even greater competition for a perceived smaller share of the social and economic pie.

But Britons are nothing if not fair and sensible: they know that when things appear to be too good or too simple to be true, they usually are. They know that pointing to the EU and EU immigrants (and who else post-Brexit?) is a simplistic solution to a complex set of British problems which will not be solved overnight and may well be accentuated by Brexit, especially if the economy takes a turn for the worse. The EU budget will not make much of a dent on the needs.

I grew-up in a council housing state in inner London.

I went to a low achieving secondary school and I was in the tiny minority that lucky enough to get to university.

I worked my way up my profession without the benefit of old boy networks.

I stumbled into an international career which has taken me throughout the EU member countries, as well as all the Candidate Countries knocking at the EU door.

My friends and family count among the people that are suffering from the angst that afflicts Britons.

So I feel able to say this: by tapping into the anxieties and frustrations of ordinary working Britons, the leading Brexiteers, their Oxbridge educated journalist buddies and their billionaire backers are spinning a very tall tale so as to tap into the legitimate concerns of ordinary Britons.

They are doing this knowingly, manipulatively and without the least intention of doing something about those concerns, should Brexit occur. Quite the opposite: their privileges and advantages are likely to be reinforced once they no longer have to look over their shoulder or deal with the bright glare of the other 27 countries of the EU.

Brexit will undoubtedly lead to winners and losers.

You can be certain of which side the leading Brexiteers, their über-wealthy and well-connected friends funding the campaigns and writing the misleading newspaper articles will be on.

But can you be so certain that your employment rights, wage levels, social benefits, etc. will be protected, let alone improved, upon Brexit?

I´m not. Not in the least.

© Ricardo Pinto, 2016, AngloDeutsch™ Blog, www.AngloDeutsch.EU


Freedom of Movement of People and Recent Immigration Trends in Britain and Germany

There is a great deal of discussion about immigration in Britain and Germany and the extent to which this is driven by the EU’s freedom of movement principle. In the case of the Britain, this is resulting in increasingly Eurosceptic public discourse due to perceived uncontrolled immigration and border, resulting in questions about whether to stay in the EU or  not. In the case of Germany, the concerns revolve around benefit abuse, especially the recent EU member countries such as Romania and Bulgaria, which acquired freedom of movement rights in 2014. This post examines EU and non-EU migration trends, including those from old, recent (A8) and new (A2) countries.

Recent Immigration has been at a Historical High

First things first: it must be noted that the net migration figures in Britain in the last decade are unparalleled. During the period until 1982, the UK actually experienced a net outflow of people. This means that more Britons, on balance, chose to leave Britain and were obviously received by other countries. Until 1997 there was an average net annual inflow of 50,000. With the accession to the European Union (EU) of the A8 countries (e.g. Poland, Slovakia, etc.) and, crucially, with the UK decision to allow people from these countries to work in Britain well in advance of being required to do so under the transition rules of the EU, this rose to a peak of 244,000 in 2004. It has been decreasing since then and reached 177,000 in 2012. The latest data suggest that net migration is increasing once again (209,000 in 2013), probably because of the influence of Romanian and Bulgarian immigration, combined with the fact that Britain’s economy is growing once again. Since these have much smaller populations that the A8 countries, this is not likely to last long. Broadly the same trend was evident in Germany but see below for variations, particularly in recent years where net migration has taken-off.

 Asylum seekers

In a previous post, we defined the key types of immigrant; asylum seekers are basically a sub-set of immigrants. According to Eurostat data, in 2013 there were 434,450 applications made to all EU-28 countries. The largest volume of applications was to Germany (126,705 or 29.1% of all applications in the EU), France (66,265) and Sweden (54,270). The UK received the fourth largest volume of applications (29,875) but this was noticeably less than the several other EU countries (6.8%). Given the size of its population and economy, the UK received a relatively modest number of applications during a humanitarian crisis which is considered to be the worst since WWII and is concentrated on Afghanistan, Syria, and Somalia. Nevertheless, the Office of national Statistics estimates that asylum seekers accounted for around 4.5% of UK immigration. The German equivalent is bound to be higher since it approves about 30% of the applications. But the fact is that the public perception of the volumes of asylum seekers is out of kilter with reality as discussed in a separate post.

Let us be clear about this part of the immigration debate: the Conservative-led Government does not propose turn asylum seekers away and, as an aside, neither does Ukip at the present time. The same applies to the German Government as well as AfD (and as far as I know PEGIDA) in Germany. This is only as it should be in humane, modern societies. It should be stressed that although there are international conventions governing this issue, each country makes its own decisions and determines which applicants to accept or not. Neither is this an area which the EU is involved in.

Net migration

The net migration is the difference between immigration (arrivals) and emigration (departures) since all countries exhibit a degree of turnover in their population. Ultimately, in terms of social and economic, cultural and other pressures that may build-up in a country, net migration is that really matters. Given our focus on UK and Germany, Table 1 shows two contrasting trends. Germany has been experiencing a very sharp increase in net migration during the period 2009-2012, a trend which has continued up to today. In 2014, the net migration in Britain reached 260,000 and 470,000 in Germany. We have seen in the previous posts, the public perception of asylum seekers and immigration in Germany contrasts somewhat with that of the UK. This is not to imply or suggest that immigration is not an issue in public discourse in Germany – far from it. However, in terms of public perception and public discourse, it is relatively equable, except in the case of the PEGIDA movement, which is specifically targeted at Muslims (see the recent a post on this issue), though there is a chance that it will implode following the resignation of, for the lack of a better expression, its colourful ex-leader. Generally though, the contrast with UK is evident. Yet the statistics show that new migration in the same period had been declining in the UK until 2014, undoubtedly influenced by Conservative party’s target of “tens of thousands” (i.e. up to 100,000) immigrants per annum, whereas it is increasing steeply in Germany. The German population rose to 81.1 million people in 2014, the fourth annual increase in a row, boosted by the highest level of net migration in more than two decades.

Table 1: Net migration in Britain and Germany (2009-2012)

  2009 2010 2011 2012
Germany 59,634 151,599 240,377 352,174
United Kingdom 229,000 256,000 205,000 177,000

Source: Table 7c: Net migration in European Union countries, 2002-2012, House of Commons Library, 2014

There be Foreigners in EU Countries: Freedom of Movement at work

Looking at the total figures, the countries with the largest number of foreign-national residents in 2013 were Germany (7.7 million), Spain (5.1 million), UK (4.9 million), Italy (4.4 million), and France (4.1 million). The countries with largest number of foreign-born residents were Germany (10.2 million), UK (7.8 million), France (7.5 million) and Spain (6.2 million). These figures include very large numbers of Britons (1.3 million), Germans (1.4 million) and other EU nationals living in other EU countries, not least in Spain and France. EU migrants accounted for 35% of the total migrant stock in the EU countries as a whole in 2010 living, studying, working and retiring in elsewhere than in their own country. This is, after all, one of the wonderful things that are taken for granted in the EU, right?

Of  Natives and Foreigners

Another interesting dimension is the proportion of migrants relative to the overall population. The table below illustrates that, overall, the UK and Germany had very similar levels of foreign-born inhabitants (12.3% and 12.4% respectively) as a percentage of the overall population. The latest figures are around the 14% mark for both countries.

Table 2: Foreign-national and foreign-born populations of DE and UK (at 1 Jan 2013)

  Foreign National, Number Foreign National % of total population Foreign Born, Number Foreign Born % of total population Total, Number Density of Foreign Born (x per 1000)
Germany 7,696,413 9,4 10,201,192 12,4 82,020,578 123
United Kingdom 4,929,710 7,7 7,828,376 12,3 63,896,077 124

Source: Table 10: Foreign-national and foreign-born populations of EU countries, at 1 Jan 2013, House of Commons Library, 2014

It should be noted that the percentage of foreign-born populations in the UK and Germany are in fact relatively modest compared with many EU countries such as Luxemburg (42.4%) and Cyprus (23.2%), both outliers, well as others such as Belgium (15.7%), Ireland (16%), Austria (16.1%), Sweden (15.4%), etc. The percentages do not appear to be out of line with similarly developed and advanced countries. Indeed, given Britain’s extensive colonial past, unlike Germany, Ireland, etc., suggests that the percentage could have been higher still. What is out of line though is the public perception of how many foreigners there are in the UK (47% more than is really the case), Germany (24%), something which is repeated in other European countries (see a previous post on the perceptions and reality of immigration). This misalignment in public perceptions and reality is even more pronounced when it comes to estimates of Muslims: UK (76% more than is really the case) and Germany (69%).

 EU and non-EU immigration

Another important dimension is the origin of the immigrants. Eurostat data demonstrate that in the case of Germany, a notable proportion of the immigrants (14.7%) are actually citizens returning to their own country. However, half are citizens from other EU countries, with the balance (34.8%) being non-EU citizens. The distribution is somewhat different in the case of the UK (16.1%, 31.4% and 52.2% respectively). In other words, Germany has mainly EU and own nationals as immigrants, whereas the UK has a similar proportion of nationals returning home, but a much larger proportion of non-EU immigrants. This may be explained by the greater influence of the old and new Commonwealth on the migratory patterns of the UK, as well as the economic malaise of the country in 2012. However, it should be made clear (see definitions post) that the UK is fully in charge of its own borders and of its own immigration policy when it comes to UK and non-EU nationals. The latter is not the responsibility of the EU.

The EU-related immigration (31.6% of the total) is the key element that the UK not in charge of because of the principle of freedom of movement of people, one of the four basic freedoms of the EU. Based on the data from 2012, the bulk of the immigration issue, as far as the UK is concerned, was not the EU and its freedom of movement, contrary to what one might conclude from the current political debate and the media reporting in the UK. The contrast with Germany, which does receive more than half of its immigrants from other EU countries, could not be greater. The German Chancellor and the President have gone out of their way to make it clear that asylum seekers and immigrants generally, including Muslims, are a part of the country. They have also made it clear on numerous occasions that the EU’s freedom of movement principle is not up for renegotiation.

Table 3: Immigration by Citizenship in DE and UK (2012)

Citizens of own country % Other EU countries % Non EU Countries % Total
Germany 87,245 14.7 298,541 50.4 206,389 34.8 592,175
United Kingdom 80,196 16.1 157,554 31.6 260,290 52.2 498,040

Source: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=migr_imm2ctz&lang=en

The EU Accession Countries

The EU freedom of movement principle affected about a third of the immigration flows, whereas half were subject to immigration controls in Britain. Furthermore, the recent Accession countries that have been subject of such extensive debate in the media and political circles (the so-called A8 or Eastern European countries that acceded to the EU in 2004, including Poland, Slovakia, etc.) actually made-up 12% of all immigrants in 2012.

The above point reinforces the extent to which the immigration debate in the UK is distorted, though A8 immigration was certainly important during 2004 – 2010. Based on the data available relating to 2012, half of the immigration flows are entirely controlled by the UK and are subject to border controls. This has little to do with the recent Accession or “new” EU countries. Presumably the public is not particularly interested in reducing immigration from the “old” EU (15) countries such as France, Italy and Germany (i.e. 17.1% of the total). In terms of the recent members that are now eligible to work throughout the EU, namely Bulgaria and Romania (the so-called A2), 2014 started with a trickle of immigrants, but this increased steadily, so that net immigration is on the up. Consequently, the EU immigration debate has increasingly focused on the A2 countries where, in addition to the numbers involved, the implicit debate is often about the Roma communities from those countries.

Let us be clear about one thing: it is not the EU’s freedom of movement principle that has historically contributed the largest percentages of immigrants to the UK, except for a short period of time (2004 – 2010). This period coincided with a concerted effort on the part of the UK to actively court people from the A8 countries to migrate to the UK. The UK had made a political and economic decision that A8 immigrants were needed to sustain the economic boom and associated prosperity of Britain at the time. These decision cannot be used to subsequently blamed either the EU (after all, the transition arrangements were in place and the UK chose not to make use of them) or the people who heeded these official overtures from the duly elected British government of the time. Nothing can change these facts. The real immigration story, if there is one, is, has always been and will continue to be the old/new Commonwealth (ca. 26%) and the Other Foreign countries (another ca. 26%), as illustrated in the Table below.

Table 4: Immigration to the UK by Nationality, 2009-2012

2009 2010 2011 2012 % 2012
British 96 93 78 80 16.1
European Union 167 176 174 158 31.7
EU 15 82 76 83 85 (17.1)
EU A8 68 86 77 60 (12.0)
EU Other 17 14 14 13 (2.6)
Non EU 303 322 314 260 52.2
Old Commonwealth 30 31 29 31 (6.2)
New Commonwealth 141 156 151 98 (19.7)
Other Foreign 132 135 135 131 (26.3)
Total 567 591 566 498 100

Source: Table 2a: Immigration to the UK by nationality, 2000-2012, House of Commons Library, 2014

EU15: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, the Irish Republic, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden; A8: Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004, namely Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia; EU other: includes all other EU 27 countries (Croatia joined the EU later); Old Commonwealth: Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa; and New Commonwealth: all Commonwealth countries not part of the Old Commonwealth, including those of the Indian sub-continent and African Commonwealth countries other than South Africa.

It would be great if we would refrain from denying the importance and value in economic, cultural and social terms of the EU’s principle of freedom of movement (of people, goods capital and services) to all European citizens. This applies particularly to Britons and Germans, who are themselves far from averse from making full use of the freedom of movement to study, work, retire and invest (e.g. second / retirement homes) elsewhere in the EU. For its part, the German government has always nailed its colours firmly to the mast, as have all other EU nations: freedom of movement is the foundation of the EU and is simply not up for discussion. To put it crudely, Britain can either like it or lump it, otherwise it has to leave the EU.

To make a decision about leaving the EU on the basis of a “swamping” by EU citizens or in response to “benefit tourism” (I a plan a separate post in the so-called abuse of benefits) and other vague anti-EU sentiment may make for good short-term domestic politics in a pre-election period but it is not logical or in Britain’s long term interest. I agree that there are criticisms to be levelled at the EU and that there is a legitimate debate to be had about the role of the nation-state and the principle of subsidiarity but the EU immigration debate is being used excessively to castigate the EU.

Conclusions

I am only too aware of the quotation: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.” I do not expect all readers to be swayed let alone persuaded by the statistics that I have presented above, not least because some of them are quite dated as per the December 2014 House of Commons Library report used. I am sure that others can and probably will make an even more convincing case that Britain continues to be “swamped” by immigrants, that the key problems are the EU and the freedom of movement and that the sooner the UK takes full control over its borders and immigration policies, the better the UK will be much the better for it. So I only ask for consideration to be given to the following issues:

  • The numbers of asylum seekers has declined to pretty small numbers in the UK but an opposite trend is taking hold in Germany, especially because of the Syrian crisis. The numbers accepted by Britain are relatively small but larger in Germany. There is broad consensus about the importance of receiving asylum seekers as long as they are not bogus.
  • The UK had a major surge of net immigration during 2004-2010 and much of this was from the new EU member countries. The UK did not have to let in immigrants from the A8 countries at the time but chose to actively court them to come, live and work in the UK so as to satisfy its overheating labour market and prolong its economic boom at the time. The flows have declined dramatically since 2010, as has overall net migration to the UK but are increasing again, not least because the British economy is growing once again and Britons are employing the immigrants.
  • There is now significantly less immigration from the A8 countries such as Poland, so the debate has moved on to the A2 countries, namely the Bulgarians (population of 7 million) and Romanians (population of 22 million) and implicitly the Roma community (population of 10-12 million in the whole of Europe). The debate on welfare tourism and EU’s freedom of movement will continue in the UK and Germany, though in the latter case it focuses on specifically on benefit fraud/abuse.
  • The majority of immigrants to the UK in 2012 were either UK nationals or non-EU immigrants from the Commonwealth (68.3%) and beyond. This is an issue which the British government is entirely responsible for and exclusively in charge of its own borders. It is not an EC/EU issue.
  • Unlike the UK, the number of net migrants is peaking in Germany, contributing to population growth in the last four years. There is a lively debate about immigration and the PEGIDA movement has been growing. However, there is nowhere near the same degree of emotive talk on immigration, of being swamped, of uncontrolled immigration and so on, despite having almost identical levels of foreign-born population and absorbing increasing levels of immigration.

At the end of the day, the issue is not so much about numbers but about perceptions, emotions, geographical concentrations, etc. There are very real stresses and strains in society at large in Britain and Germany and immigration is a contributor to them. The politicians and media are tapping into those voter concerns but merely debating the symptoms of those concerns by focusing almost exclusively on the ills of the EU, the freedom of movement of people (but not capital, of course) and EU immigration. Would life suddenly be that much better in terms of housing, education, health, wages, employment, benefits, taxes, social services, environment, transportation, etc. as a result of leaving the EU (see the related post on the British Question)? Since the EU has either limited or no responsibility at all for almost all these I very much doubt it. The real causes of the stresses and strains, greatly exacerbated by austerity in Britain and long-term real reductions in net incomes in Germany, will be the topic of future blog posts. I believe that the real causes are to be found much closer to home than either politicians or much of the media care to acknowledge, especially in the build-up to a General Election.

Ricardo Pinto, AngloDeutsch™ Blog, www.AngloDeutsch.EU


“Angry nativism must have no part in it”: take a bow, Douglas Carswell

If you have been following the AngloDeutsch™ Blog, which was just launched in December 2014, you will be aware that the first theme reflects my growing concerns about the issue of immigration in Europe generally and Britain in particular. You will also be familiar with my concerns that the anti-immigration debate is being increasingly linked, inappropriately, with the issue of the European Union (EU). The growing anti-EU and anti-immigrant sentiment is something which the Ukip has been able to exploit to great effect.

There must be something about the Spirit of Christmas and the Festive Season, because this is the only way to explain what has just happened today. The Ukip’s first elected Member of Parliament, Douglas Carswell, astonished and probably alarmed many Ukip supporters, not to mention various Establishment figures in the UK, with the following comments in the Daily Mail. It is worth highlighting some quotations (emphasis added) from the article:

There has never been anything splendid about isolation. It was our interdependence that put the Great into Great Britain – and it is what sustains our living standards today. In such a world, a dislike of foreigners is not merely offensive, but absurd.”

I could not agree more with this statement. In the era of globalisation, which Britain has done so much to contribute to, as well as benefit from, the tone of recent public discourse, led by Ukip and increasingly repeated by others, has indeed been offensive to the foreigners living and working in Britain, to mention the other 27 EU countries. It would be absurd for this sort of tone to be maintained. It is only to be hoped that the rest of Ukip recognises and accepts it. As an aside, there would not be anything splendid about UK isolation from the rest of Europe either, should it choose the Brexit (a blend of the words ‘British’ and ‘exit’ which refers to the possibility of Britain leaving the EU) route.

“Far from being a party that tolerates pejorative comments about people’s heritage and background, Ukip in 2015 has to show that we have a serious internationalist agenda.”

There has been growing criticism of the “kippers” in the media last couple of weeks, with a growing body of evidence showing that, contrary to its protestations, Ukip is indeed tolerating all sorts of rather pejorative views which have no place in a political party with aspirations in local, national, EU and international politics.

“Preparing for the future means putting in place an immigration system capable of saying a cheery, welcoming ‘Yes’ to doctors from Singapore or scientists from south Asia, and a polite ‘No, thank you’ to someone with a criminal record, or an inclination towards welfare dependence. Angry nativism must have no part in it.”

No country, Britain included, should be expected to simply accept criminals from other countries or those that are only interested in claiming social and other benefits without working for them. This is precisely what all 28 countries of the EU are working towards, since it is in their common interest to stop this type of migration. Likewise, it is the practice among all EU member states, as illustrated by the EU Blue Card system, to ensure access to highly qualified labour. Douglas Carswell hits the nail on the head when he stresses that angry “nativism”, the policy of protecting the interests of native-born or established inhabitants against those of immigrants, should not be part of public discourse, especially in the context of the EU.

No Ukip candidate should ever make the mistake of blaming outsiders for the failings of political insiders in Westminster.”

Most interesting of all, he recognises that the anti-immigration (and in my view anti-EU) rhetoric may be convenient but is misplaced. The reality is that many of the issues that people in Britain, Germany and elsewhere in Europe are frustrated and angry about, such as the reduction in real wages and the state of housing, health, education, transport, etc. have little to do with outsiders / immigrants, especially those from the EU. They have been decades in the making and are the direct result of the systemic failings of the leading political parties: the insiders not the outsiders. We could substitute “Ukip” for “political” and “Westminster” for other parliaments in Europe and the rest the quotation would apply to many other EU member countries.

I never imagined I would say this to a member of Ukip, but take a well-earned bow, Mr Carswell. I disagree with the rest of your views, not least your continuing Euroscepticism (stressed in the very same article), but I do admire your moral and intellectual courage in respect to the above quotations. Let us see what the Ukip leadership and activists make of them. Indeed, although your message was mainly addressed at the Ukip, let us see how the leading political parties react to them in the months ahead.

Ricardo Pinto, AngloDeutsch™ Blog, www.anglodeutsch.eu


The Anti-EU and Anti-Immigration Fixation: expedient politics?

This post, the first of a series of the AngloDeutsch™ Blog, focuses on the rise of anti-immigration and anti-EU and/or Euro discourse in Britain and Germany, with a focus on the role being played by both the mainstream and the populist parties such as UK Independence Party (Ukip) in Britain and Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany. It argues that there is a need for a more measured approach, especially in Britain, rather than simplistic analysis which my be politically convenient but serves only to fan the flames of populist fires.

Growing Anti-immigration and Anti-Euro Sentiment in Germany

The increasingly heated immigration debate reached Germany about the same time as it started in the United Kingdom (UK). Mr Thilo Sarrazin published a book called “Germany is doing away with itself” in 2010, which incidentally became the most popular book on politics by a German-language author in a decade. Its central argument was that Germany’s post-war immigration policy has failed, thus catalysing an intense and raucous nation-wide debate about the costs and benefits of multiculturalism. Mr Sarrazin advocated a more restrictive immigration policy (except for the highly skilled) and reduction of state welfare benefits, while making strong statements about Islam and the Turkish and Arab communities. Mr Sarrazin did not shy away from predicting the Germans will eventually be outnumbered by an underclass of Muslims (see below for echoes of Enoch Powell’s views). The popularity of the book (over 1.5 million copies sold) and various surveys illustrated that his arguments struck a chord in the country, especially with male, middle-class, middle-aged and elderly, conservatives.

The book broke an unwritten rule in Germany by discussing migration, ethnicity and Islam so openly and some might say provocatively. Germans have typically trodden lightly on such topics for obvious historical reasons. The debate even affected the leading conservative sister parties, namely the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU). The Chancellor Angela Merkel, well-known for being Europe’s most accomplished politician at saying nothing that might upset anyone, even felt sufficiently emboldened to make one of her few unequivocal statements. In 2010 she stated that multiculturalism had “utterly failed” in the country. Despite concerns that it might happen, the furore of 2010 did not result in an anticipated new party to capitalise on the issue. Mr Sarazzin moved on other challenges, publishing another controversial book called “Europe doesn’t need the euro” in 2012, which once again went against the grain of national of public discourse.

Perhaps in recognition of its political value in Britain and elsewhere in Europe, the salience of the immigration debate has been increasing very fast in Germany. The CSU has been focusing on “poverty immigrants” and “benefit tourists” since 2013, causing German politicians to discuss new instruments designed to keep mainly Roma immigrants from Romania and Bulgaria out as far as possible. Last week, the CSU published a policy paper insisting that German should be spoken both in public and at home.The paper made a distinction between EU and non-EU immigrants; the requirement would apply only to the latter, not the former. There was widespread condemnation in the media that it is not for the state to determine which language people, immigrants or otherwise, choose to speak in their own homes.

In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) initially had a very narrower focus, namely leaving the Euro (not the EU, which currently no partly currently advocates). It is not by coincidence that it started gaining much greater traction with voters when it began to broaden its policies. Like Ukip, it has brought its guns to bear on the EU (the principle of subsidiarity, rather than exiting the EU) and immigration issues (asylum, immigration law on the Canadian model, etc.). Although this may change, for the moment, neither politicians nor the media discuss the issues in quite the same strident manner as in Britain.

Immigration and EU Scepticism in British Politics

By contrast, in the UK the meteoric rise of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), founded in 1993 and led by their jovial, pint-guzzling, fag-smoking Mr Nigel Farage, who like Mr Sarrazin does not mince his words in relation to immigration or the EU, has been remarkable. Under his leadership, UKIP’s star has been on an apparently inexorable rise, which unlike the German situation so far, is having dramatic consequences on Britain and potentially the EU. Whereas in April 2006 the Prime Minister David Cameron felt able to described UKIP members as being “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists, mostly.” By 2013, its popularity and organisational capacity has increased so much that in the county council elections across England, Ukip poled an average of 23% in the wards where it stood and returned 147 elected councillors. Its biggest success was getting its first two Members of Parliament elected in Clacton and Rochester and Strood in late 2014.

Ukip has rapidly risen to prominence at the expense of a hemorrhaging of voters away principally from the Conservatives, but also from Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Its principal policy is simple but appealing, namely to withdraw from the EU and agree a free trade agreement instead. However, like the AfD it is no longer a single issue party. Ukip extols loudly and repeatedly the virtues of limited, controlled immigration and its intention to “take back control of the UK borders”. Work permits will be permitted to fill skills gaps in the UK jobs market so long as immigrants have a job to go to, speak English and have accommodation and health insurance. Immigrants will only be eligible for benefits (in work or out of work) when they have been paying tax and National Insurance for five years and will only be eligible for permanent residence after ten years.

The intention is clearly to slow down migration to “manageable” levels. Recent figures had shown a steep decline in net migration until 2014 (the subject of a forthcoming post), when they peaked once again, probably connected with a surge is Bulgarian and Romanian immigration now that the transition period is over. Ukip has coupled the anti-EU and anti-immigrant debate to remarkable effect. This double-pronged weapon is paying rich political dividends for them. However, as with many populist initiatives, while they may be superficially appealing, they would amount to a double-whammy with major long-term consequences if enacted by Britain. The fact is that there is a lot of political smoke and mirrors in the debate. The problems in Britain are long-standing and while they may well have been accentuated by immigration and the freedom of movement (though the jury is out on these), to conclude that the solution is to leave the EU in order to regain control of the borders is simply not credible.

The Ukip tail wagging the bulldog

In the UK, the “kippers” are having a dramatic effect, resulting in an increasing clamour in relation to the issue of immigration. Ukip has effectively manoeuvred the Conservative Party (along with its well-known and long-established Eurosceptic wing) into offering, should they still be in power in 2017, a straight in-out referendum as to whether to remain within the EU or not.  Furthermore, it has managed to push the Government, Liberal Democrats included, into a mooted renegotiation of the UK’s membership terms with the EU, including significant reform so as to repatriate powers to the nation-state. Most EU countries share a concern about the abuse of the subsidiarity principle and are inclined to be supportive, not least Germany. But the increasingly shrill nature of the UK position is making such reform harder to secure. Recent demands to abolish the principle of freedom of movement of workers were dismissed out of hand by the President of the European Commission, Mr Jean-Claude Juncker, as well as the key German politicians such as Mr Wolfgang Schäuble (unthinkable) and Mrs Angela Merkel (no tempering with the principle). The spat over the refusal to pay “anywhere near the amount requested by Brussels by December” appears to be little more than political bluster and posturing.

Also, the casual observer would be tempted to conclude that the immigration debate is increasingly histrionic in Britain. Seemingly every other day, the heat is turned up and the rhetoric becomes ever more intemperate. Mainstream politicians on all sides of the political spectrum, with the notable exception of the LibDems, have taken up the UKIP mantra of anti-EU sentiment combined with anti-immigrant rhetoric. This has become a normal part of the public discourse in the Houses of Parliament, on TV, radio and newspapers. It is hardly surprising that the public feels emboldened to express its views in an increasingly no-holds barred manner, verging on racism and xenophobia. Such discourse might well happen behind closed doors in other European countries but it not (yet) so open.

It is also not by chance that the escalation in immigration and anti-EU rhetoric in Britain has coincided with the recent bye-elections which the Conservative party has lost to Ukip in Clacton and Rochester and Strood. As the Ukip ratings went up, Ministers started banging on about the necessity to get rid of the EU’s freedom of movement principle, the PM refused to pay the additional EU tax which his government has agreed, etc. This smacks of short-term electioneering. However, a red line was crossed when the Defence Minister, Mr Michael Fallon claimed that certain towns are being “swamped” by immigrants and their residents are “under siege”. The Prime Minister’s Office reworded “swamped” with “under pressure” but the boat had already left the harbour. The escalation of emotive language being used by Government ministers is a clear trend that the rest of society takes its cue from.

This is nothing new in Britain. In 1978, Mrs Margaret Thatcher stated that large numbers of migrant workers and foreigners (from the new Commonwealth and Pakistan) meant that people were afraid that the country might be rather swamped by people of a different culture. This even before referring to Enoch Powell’s so-called “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968 which is credited, at least in part, with playing a contributory role in the unexpected 1970 Conservative general election win.

While such political (and media) rhetoric is hardly new in British politics, it does mark a major new departure in the UK where the Government itself (and to some extent the Labour Party) seems to have lost a sense of moderation in relation to the political discourse on immigration and the EU. I expect this trend to intensify in the months until the General Election in May 2015.

If Ukip (and similar parties of its ilk) is indeed the driving force that is dominating the political discourse on the EU and immigration, this is bad news indeed for immigrants, for the EU and for Britain itself. By comparison the German President,Mr Joachim Gauk, frequently stressed the importance of solidarity vis-à-vis asylum seekers, stressing the virtues of immigration and integration. The German Government is paving the way for tightened asylum seeker law but also a more flexible Dual Citizenship law and strongly defending the principle of freedom of movement of people within the EU as being non-negotiable. At a recent immigration and integration event in November 2014 organised at the Headquarters of the CDU, something that would not be imaginable by the leading political parties in Britain, the Chancellor Mrs Angela Merkel stressed that “Germany has the chance to become a great integration country” and that “Islam now belongs to us.” The contrast in the political rhetoric could not be greater for countries that have more or less identical foreign-born as a percentage of the total population (12.3% and 12.4% in Britain and Germany respectively).

Austerity accentuates long standing problems

The omens are not good for the future of immigration and the EU; both are increasingly conflated and damned, especially in Britain. Ukip appears to have cornered the market of British political discourse and the Conservatives (and to a lesser extent Labour) are increasingly dancing to their tune, so as to avoid losing touch with an important segment of voters who are clearly experiencing a strong allure to these simplistic yet appealing overtures. Politicians of all hues and shades are increasingly latching on to this sentiment. The trend is reinforced by the apparent readiness of a notable portion of the media to sing along to these tunes in Britain, especially in relation to the anti-EU discourse. Without doubt increasing stresses and strains are evident in housing, education, health, transportation, etc. but these are long-term and systemic in nature. They have been greatly accentuated by the recent years of austerity, a process which is set to continue in Britain directly through government policies and indirectly in Germany through long-term wage restraint. They are not the consequence of a surge in net migration over several years cause by the EU and its freedom of movement principle. The discourse stressing these two elements at the exclusion of everything else cannot be left unchallenged.

In the next few posts I shall explore various migration themes and issues, from the perspective of Britain, Germany and the EU. I hope to contribute to a debate about this increasingly important topic before moving on to other issues such as the housing crisis and the future of the EU.

Ricardo Pinto, AngloDeutsch™ Blog, www.anglodeutsch.eu